The revised GDP estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) have revealed an extraordinary 121.4% year-on-year growth in the electricity, gas, and water supply sector during the fourth quarter of FY2025 — a sharp contrast to the -2%, -5%, and -4% negative growth recorded in the first three quarters.
The government attributed this surge to higher subsidies, a lower deflator, and a -31.6% low base effect, but analysts argue these factors alone cannot justify such a massive jump.
According to NEPRA data, electricity generation increased by only 6% during the same quarter. There were no significant changes in either hydel or thermal generation that could explain a 121% real value-added growth.
Some analysts tried linking this to non-metered solar generation, but PBS clarified that such production is not included in the electricity sector figures — it’s counted under manufacturing or household consumption instead.
This glaring mismatch suggests either some unusual technical adjustments were made or the estimates do not reflect on-ground realities. 📝⚠️
