Pakistan’s cotton production has dropped sharply to 6.8 million bales, falling 34% short of the 10.18 million-bale target, according to official documents submitted to the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) for the upcoming Rabi season. The projected output, derived from 2.0 million hectares of cultivated area, reflects multiple challenges confronting the crop this year.
The decline is attributed to several factors, including climate change, unexpected rains and floods, pest attacks by whitefly and pink bollworm, the spread of leaf curl virus, limited seed technology, and competition from other cash crops.
In the previous FCA meeting held on April 24, the committee had set a target of 10.18 million bales from 2.2 million hectares. However, the actual sown area this year stood 11.5% below target, at 2.0 million hectares.
During the latest meeting, the FCA set the wheat production target for Rabi 2025–26 at 29.678 million tons from 9.648 million hectares. It was reported that wheat seed availability stands at 551,467.63 metric tons, meeting 49% of the total national requirement of 1,126,444 metric tons. Province-wise availability includes Punjab (515,795.04 MT), Sindh (19,351.98 MT), and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (16,320.62 MT).
The FCA also approved production targets for other Rabi crops, including:
- Potato: 8.91 million tons
- Onion: 2.78 million tons
- Chickpeas: 442,900 tons
- Lentils: 9,220 tons
- Tomatoes: 690,900 tons
The committee reviewed the Kharif 2025–25 crop performance as well. The rice crop was cultivated on 3.70 million hectares, a 5% decrease from last year’s 3.89 million hectares, with an estimated production of 9.41 million tons, down 3.2% from 9.72 million tons last year.
Meanwhile, sugarcane cultivation rose 5.9% year-on-year to 1.146 million hectares, with production estimated at 84.7 million tons, slightly higher (0.6%) than last year’s 84.2 million tons.
The maize crop was sown on 1.47 million hectares, producing 8.4 million tons, showing a 7.1% decline in area and a 6.8% fall in output compared to the previous year.
Other estimates include:
- Groundnut: 105,800 tons
- Black gram (mash): 5.34 thousand tons from 6.75 thousand hectares
Regarding fertilizer use, the meeting was informed that urea consumption during Rabi 2025–26 is projected at 3.415 million tons, up 10.1% from the previous Rabi season (3.103 million tons). DAP consumption is expected to reach 894,000 tons, an increase of 5.5% year-on-year. Overall fertilizer usage is forecasted to rise 9% compared to last year.
On water availability, the IRSA Advisory Committee forecasted no shortage for Punjab and Sindh, with 33.814 million acre-feet of water allocated for Rabi 2025–26. Rainfall is expected to remain below normal in November and December, but near normal in January 2026.
The meeting was attended by representatives from provincial agriculture departments, IRSA, Pakistan Meteorological Department, State Bank, Agricultural Development Bank, National Fertilizer Development Center, Agriculture Policy Institute, Federal Seed Certification and Registration Department, Plant Protection Department, Federal Water Management, Pakistan Oilseed Board, PASSCO, MNFS&R officials, and Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC).
