The Central Power Purchasing Agency (CPPA-G) has prepared five possible scenarios for the Power Purchase Price (PPP) for the year 2026, which will be applicable from January to December. The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) has announced that it will hold a public hearing on November 18, 2025, regarding CPPA-G’s submitted proposal.
These five proposed scenarios are based on sensitivity analysis, taking into account various factors such as electricity demand, hydrology, fuel prices, and exchange rate fluctuations.
According to CPPA-G:
- Scenario 1: Rs 25.95 per unit
- Scenario 2: Rs 26.53 per unit
- Scenario 3: Rs 25.73 per unit
- Scenario 4: Rs 26.20 per unit
- Scenario 5: Rs 25.69 per unit
Sources reveal that in Scenario 1, electricity demand is assumed to increase by 1%, with an exchange rate of Rs 280 per US dollar, and normal fuel and water conditions.
In Scenario 2, all conditions remain the same except the exchange rate, which is assumed at Rs 300 per dollar.
Scenario 3 assumes a 2.5% increase in demand with the exchange rate at Rs 300 per dollar.
Scenario 4 factors in higher fuel prices and an exchange rate of Rs 330 per dollar, while Scenario 5 assumes lower fuel prices with a Rs 300 per dollar exchange rate.
Common factors across all scenarios include:
- U.S. inflation: 2.30%
- Pakistan inflation: 7.74%
- KIBOR: 11%
- LIBOR/SOFR: 4.47%
- Transmission charges: Rs 300/kW per month
- PMLTC charges: Rs 225
- Market operator fee: Rs 9.08
- NTDC system losses: 2.6%
Under Scenario 1, expected electricity sales are 125,822 GWh, with a total cost of Rs 999,469 million and fuel cost at Rs 7.94 per unit. The overall Power Purchase Price is calculated at Rs 24.04 per unit, which, after adding transmission and other fees, amounts to Rs 25.95 per unit.
In Scenario 2, the fuel cost rises to Rs 8.14 per unit, making the total price Rs 26.53 per unit. For Scenario 3, the price is Rs 25.73 per unit, Scenario 4 is Rs 26.20 per unit, and Scenario 5 is Rs 25.69 per unit.
CPPA-G explained that these estimates are meant to assist in preparing monthly Power Purchase Price references for the 2026 calendar year. The agency emphasized that these figures are based on assumptions, and adjustments may occur in the future depending on changes in fuel prices, electricity demand, or exchange rates.
