KARACHI: Pakistan’s power purchase price could climb to Rs27.309 per kilowatt-hour in 2027, according to a base-case projection by the Central Power Purchasing Agency-Guarantee Ltd. that puts total procurement costs at Rs3.55 trillion.
The forecast is part of a tariff rebasing for ex-Wapda distribution companies due to take effect Jan. 1, 2027. It will set the reference costs used to determine consumer electricity tariffs for the new period.
CPPA-G’s estimates range from Rs25.883 per unit in an ideal scenario to Rs29.255 per unit in the second-worst case, depending largely on fuel prices, currency movements and capacity payments.
The National Electric Power Regulatory Authority will hold a public hearing on the projections on Nov. 3, 2026, at 2 p.m. at Nepra Tower, with online participation available through Zoom. Stakeholders may submit comments and objections.
The base case assumes 2.60% annual demand growth, an exchange rate of Rs279 per U.S. dollar and sales of 130,081 gigawatt-hours to distribution companies.
Capacity charges make up the largest cost, at Rs1.91 trillion, or Rs14.717 per unit. Fuel is projected to cost Rs1.32 trillion, or Rs10.141 per unit, while variable operations and maintenance expenses are estimated at Rs70.58 billion, or Rs0.543 per unit.
Transmission-related costs and Ministry of Finance charges total Rs248.30 billion, or Rs1.909 per unit. Capacity payments are expected to remain the biggest driver of procurement costs, with fuel and exchange-rate shifts also affecting the final price.
In the two worst-case scenarios, the rupee is assumed to weaken to Rs290 per dollar, pushing the projected price to Rs28.835 and Rs29.255 per unit, respectively.
A lower-demand scenario, assuming 0.70% annual growth and sales of 127,937 gigawatt-hours, projects a price of Rs27.568 per unit. A scenario testing the re-gasified liquefied natural gas and gas mix projects Rs26.441 per unit, while the ideal case estimates Rs25.883 per unit, mainly because of lower fuel costs.
All six scenarios assume an 11.70% Karachi Interbank Offered Rate, 3.98% Secured Overnight Financing Rate, 2.10% U.S. inflation, 8.20% domestic inflation and 2.50% National Grid Company losses.
The projection is not the final retail tariff. It remains subject to Nepra’s review and will be affected by taxes, duties, subsidies and other tariff components. The Nov. 3 hearing will allow stakeholders to comment on the assumptions shaping tariffs from January 2027.
