The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) has urged the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) to appoint a special team comprising top international and national economists and statisticians to develop a more robust and sector-appropriate demand forecasting model.
In a letter addressed to NEPRA’s Registrar, APTMA Secretary General Shahid Sattar referred to the Authority’s public notice dated August 28, 2025, which sought feedback on the Integrated System Plan (ISP) 2025-2035.
APTMA’s response consists of two key components: (i) a fundamental critique of the demand forecasting methodology, which it claims undermines the credibility of the entire Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP); and (ii) a broader set of observations and priorities that the ISP/IGCEP must address in order to align national energy planning with economic realities—especially the urgent need for affordable and competitive electricity tariffs.
APTMA argues that the current IGCEP relies heavily on an overly simplistic and flawed regression model that correlates grid electricity demand with macroeconomic indicators such as GDP and population growth. According to APTMA, this model is based on the assumption that electricity demand will rise in direct proportion to economic and population growth, a premise they believe is inadequate for realistic energy planning.
