Crude oil prices rose on Friday after four consecutive days of decline. However, they are still heading for their largest weekly drop since late June due to market expectations that OPEC+ may increase production further despite an oversupply.
Brent crude prices increased by 43 cents, or 0.7%, to $64.54 per barrel.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled 41 cents higher, or 0.7%, at $60.89 per barrel.
On a weekly basis, Brent recorded an 8% drop, while WTI fell by 7.4%.
Sources told Reuters this week that OPEC+ could agree to raise oil production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November — three times the increase planned for October — as Saudi Arabia seeks to reclaim its market share.
IG analyst Tony Sycamore said that if OPEC+ announces a 500,000 barrel per day production hike this weekend, it would be significant enough to push crude prices lower again. Prices could initially test support at $58.00 per barrel, followed by this year’s low of around $55.00.
Analysts believe that a potential increase in OPEC+ supply, a slowdown in global crude processing due to refinery maintenance, and a seasonal decline in demand in the coming months — all these factors will accelerate the build-up of oil inventories in the U.S. and elsewhere.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that U.S. crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories rose last week as refining activity and demand remained weak.
J.P. Morgan analysts noted that September marked a turning point, and the oil market is now moving toward a significant surplus during Q4 2025 and into next year.
