KARACHI: Pakistan Aluminium Beverage Cans is expected to report a 39% year-over-year decline in earnings for the third quarter of 2026, as the continued closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border drags on the company’s export sales, according to a JS Global research note published Monday.
The analyst expects PABC to post earnings of Rs3.0 per share for the quarter ending Sept. 30, down sharply from a year earlier, with net sales projected to fall 57% year-over-year to Rs3.2 billion. The company is scheduled to announce its results Oct. 28.
Exports to Afghanistan and Central Asia via the Afghan route have remained suspended since October 2025, accounting for more than half of the company’s sales in 2025. PABC reported export revenue of more than Rs5 billion in the third quarter of 2025, compared with just Rs0.6 billion in the first quarter of 2026 and Rs0.34 billion in the second quarter.
Domestic sales are projected to rise 18% year-over-year, though the note said sequential declines reflect seasonal beverage demand patterns, with the second quarter typically the peak season. Exports to Bangladesh via sea route are expected to be minimal.
JS Global projected gross margin to narrow 2 percentage points year-over-year to 34%, as a 23% annual increase and 10% quarterly decrease in average aluminum prices are expected to be fully passed through. Unlike the first two quarters of 2026, no windfall inventory gains are anticipated given the quarterly correction in aluminum prices.
For the first nine months of 2026, earnings per share are estimated at Rs10.91, down 44% year-over-year, with sales down 56% to Rs10.8 billion.
The research house said the lack of clarity on reopening the Afghan border, the company’s reliance on the Afghan route for 60% of sales and the execution of its Afghanistan expansion plan are likely to keep investors away from the stock. PABC held net cash of Rs15.3 billion, or Rs42.5 per share, as of June 2026.
JS Global’s target price for the stock is Rs128, compared with a market price of Rs72.44. The company has a market capitalization of Rs26 billion, or about $93 million.
